5 Day - T+120 Hour Outlook Thread

[T9]

Looks amazing on the IR image at the moment http://www.sat24.com/?culture=en . Its wrapping really tightly.

• Tweet

[Snowbie]

A look at the 00Z run and it indicates a period of very windy weather continuing in the SW from late afternoon to mid evening as the low pressure still maintains the track. The latest run should be out in the next hour to see if there is a wobble in this track.

• Tweet

[Hal1]

It has a almost perfect eye at the centre now. The gusts from it are getting stronger and more frequent. Getting average gust of 20kts now.

• Tweet

[Snowbie]

Center of circulation will be over Limerick at 10pm this evening. The strongest winds are on the southern flank of these systems so warning is still on for the south west, particularly near the coasts and over higher ground in this region for severe gusts.

The track takes it from N Galway to Wexford. If the track where to shift further south, the strong winds will remain offshore and won't be as bad but even 100 miles shift to the north will bring back the strong winds and also will affect a wider area on the southern flank. Initially, the winds will be from the south west veering northerly later in the night.

• Tweet

[Snowbie]

On the midday run which is released around 6pm, there has been a slight wobble of the center of circulation to the south. The track takes it from Galway to Waterford. This has two affects now, the coastal fringes of the south west should be only affected with very strong winds and the length of time with sustained strong winds has now decreased. It will however continue to be very blustery in the south west corner of the country.

Gusts of 80 to 100kmh now expected imminently with 110kmh over higher ground and perhaps some funneling of the winds at coastal locations where the wind gets compressed between the peninsulas. Winds will quickly abate as we go through this evening and veer to the north. Heavy rain will continue in western parts and the south for a time before clearing out into the Celtic sea.

It is a nowcast on how long the strong winds will last and how strong they will gust.

• Tweet

[T9]

Sherkin Island with a gust of 102 Kmh

• Tweet

[Snowbie]

First look at a developing system to the south bring up the potential of more heavy rain this Sunday to the south and east. The track of this system moves north across the country. We will watch this one closely.

• Tweet

[Pad]

Looks unusual to come from that direction

• Tweet

[Snowbie]

Yes Pad that's right, well spotted.

• Tweet

[Damo]

Sunday still looking very wet indeed.

• Tweet

[Snowbie]

Forecast for that new low pressure system to come closer to Ireland renewing the threat of heavy rain by Sunday on ECM 12Z. Both GFS and ECM in some agreement on this one.

• Tweet

[Snowbie]

Lol Damo, good to have another pair of eyes watching too. 

• Tweet

[Snowbie]

Looks set that the new area of low pressure which deepens but stays to our south will swing up an occluded front that may straddle the country from east to west right across the middle from Sunday into Monday morning. Rain will first reach the southeast around noon on Sunday and move northwest. All areas are at risk of rain by the end of the day with winds possibly reach gale force on eastern and southern coasts. Rain may become persistent and heavy for a time on Sunday.

More info on this new system during Saturday when a warning may be issued.

• Tweet

[Snowbie]

Rain will move NW across the country tomorrow but will be slow to reach the north west of the country. Moderate rain driven on by gale force easterly winds along the south and south east coast at first but winds will decrease during Sunday. Some heavy pulses of rain at times running along the front with all areas at risk but again mtns of the east will see some decent rainfall totals of up to 25mm with 10 to 15mm to lower levels at this time in the east.

• Tweet